At the end of every year, it is fun to look back at predictions and see how they actually played out. Rob from Oink for Influencers made twelve predictions for the Amazon Influencer Program in 2025, seven regular and five wild ones. In this honest self-assessment, he grades each prediction and reflects on what nobody saw coming, especially the explosive rise of Creator Connections.
Table of Contents
- Prediction 1: AI Gets Addressed
- Prediction 2: Minimum Video Length Goes Up
- Prediction 3: More Collaborations with Search Platforms
- Prediction 4: Upper Carousel Mobile Redesign
- Prediction 5: Creator Connections Commissions Trend Lower
- Prediction 6: Creator Stars Gets Real Benefits
- The Wild Predictions and What Actually Happened
- The Biggest Surprise of 2025
- Watch the Full Video
Prediction 1: AI Gets Addressed
Rob predicted that Amazon would tighten up on AI abuse including fake people, fake voiceovers, and screenshot videos. He gave himself a D on this one. While Amazon did not specifically target AI content, there were behaviors around August where accounts were being flagged for suspicious or unnatural activity. Some people got banned, which led to speculation that Amazon was starting to address the AI problem indirectly. However, there was no formal policy or detection system rolled out as predicted.
Prediction 2: Minimum Video Length Goes Up
This prediction was that the 5-second minimum for earning a commission would be adjusted upward. Rob gave this a straight F. The minimum did not change at all. He still believes this should happen to combat cheater accounts that post the same 5-second video over and over, but Amazon simply did not make this move in 2025.
Prediction 3: More Collaborations with Search Platforms
The prediction was that Amazon would lean harder into partnerships with Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and YouTube to drive off-site traffic. Rob graded this a D. There was a lot of talk about potential partnerships, but nothing materialized in a meaningful way. He believes Amazon intends to do something in this space eventually, but as of the end of 2025, there is no evidence of it happening.
Prediction 4: Upper Carousel Mobile Redesign
Rob expected the mobile carousel experience to shift toward a more vertical, Inspire-styled format. He gave this an F with a caveat. While the specific mobile redesign did not happen, Amazon did start experimenting with vertical video carousels on product pages toward the end of the year. This suggests that something related to mobile and vertical video is likely still coming, which may appear on next year’s prediction list.
Prediction 5: Creator Connections Commissions Trend Lower
The prediction was that as more influencers joined Creator Connections, brands would offer lower commission rates. Rob gave himself a C because he lacks hard data to prove it either way. His gut feeling is that there are more campaigns in the 10 to 20 percent range compared to the 30 to 50 percent range seen earlier. With campaigns being added so rapidly, it is hard to track definitively, but the general trend seems to be heading downward as expected.
Prediction 6: Creator Stars Gets Real Benefits
This was Rob’s best prediction, earning a B+. He correctly predicted that Amazon would add meaningful benefits to the Creator Stars tiers. Gold and platinum creators gained access to Deals Hub lists, Prime Day CSV downloads, Black Friday and holiday CSV downloads, and most significantly, early access to Creator Connections campaigns for about a week before bronze and silver creators see them. The only part he got wrong was predicting that Amazon would make the tiers harder to achieve or add a new tier above platinum.
The Wild Predictions and What Actually Happened
Rob’s five wild predictions mostly earned F grades. He predicted on-site videos would stop qualifying for Creator Connections bonuses, but the opposite happened as Amazon actually began formally including on-site in the CC ecosystem. He predicted performance audits and bottom-tier pruning, giving himself a C as some individual placement losses might have been audit-related. His predictions about Amazon leaning into AI influencers, on-site videos losing commission eligibility, and Creator Stars being killed off all received F grades. Interestingly, Creator Stars went from being what Rob called a nothing burger to one of the most impactful features of the program.
The Biggest Surprise of 2025
The biggest story of 2025 was undoubtedly the rise of Creator Connections. At the beginning of the year, hardly anyone was talking about it as a major income source. By year’s end, Creator Connections had not just overtaken traditional Amazon influencer commissions but had completely swallowed them up. Rob admits he had almost no Creator Connections predictions because at the time of his original video, it simply was not the force it became. This dramatic shift makes 2026 an exciting year with many possibilities for what comes next.
Watch the Full Video
Watch the original video from Oink for Influencers on YouTube:
